0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 13.5/game vs a 12.8 league average
vs them: averages 0.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Goals
13.5per game · league avg 12.8
#5 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Goals
At Gabba—(0)
Everywhere else0.3(110)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Goals
Wet games (≥1mm)0.2(13)-0.1
Dry games0.3(97)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Goals
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CARBlake Acres1.010%
08-01CARBen Ainsworth1.41-29%
08-01CARMarc Pittonet1.81-43%
08-01CARGeorge Hewett1.41-31%
08-01CARSam Walsh1.010%
08-01CARFrancis Evans1.41-29%
08-01CARHarry McKay1.83+68%
08-01CARTalor Byrne1.82+14%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Harry's. Computed from this app's own records.