• 4.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.9
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 81.9/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.