• 25.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 27.4
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 35.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 27.2 there (35 gm)
• vs them: averages 30.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 49 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.