• 0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 11.7/game vs a 12.8 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 0.2 there (67 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 12: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.