• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 13.2/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.