0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 13.2/game vs a 12.2 league average
vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Marks Inside 50
13.2per game · league avg 12.2
#5 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Marks Inside 50
At Gabba—(0)
Everywhere else0.2(84)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Marks Inside 50
Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(8)
Dry games0.2(76)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Marks Inside 50
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
-1%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-01CARMatthew Cottrell1.52+33%
08-01CARMitch McGovern1.81-45%
08-01CARBen Ainsworth1.41-29%
08-01CARTalor Byrne1.82+14%
08-01CARWill Hayward1.41-30%
08-01CARGeorge Hewett1.010%
08-01CARBlake Acres1.010%
08-01CARHarry McKay2.03+50%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Will's. Computed from this app's own records.