• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 13.5/game vs a 12.8 league average
• vs them: averages 0.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.