• 6.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.8 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 212.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 6.7 there (40 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 18: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.