• 6.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.9 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.9
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 212.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.