• 7.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.5
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 94/game vs a 93.4 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 5.3 there (42 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.