• 2.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.6
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −2.2 wet forecast — averages 0.2 in the wet (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.