• 1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.3 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.