• 33.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 32.5 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 35.4
• +3.3 opponent leak — they concede 38.8/game vs a 35.3 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 35.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.