• 4.8 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 164.6/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +1.9 at this ground — averages 6.7 there (81 gm)
• vs them: averages 8.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 22: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.