• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.3
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.5/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 14 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.