• 1.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 38.8/game vs a 35.3 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.