• 6.0 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 200.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.2 at this ground — averages 7.2 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 7.2 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.