• 2.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 1 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +1.1 at this ground — averages 3.4 there (39 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.