• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 12.3/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (26 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.