• 12.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 12.3 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.5
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 200.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.7 at this ground — averages 10.3 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 11.2 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.