• 2.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.1
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 117.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 2.8 there (22 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.