• 0.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 11.9/game vs a 12.2 league average
• +0.2 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (4 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.