• 5.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• +0.5 opponent leak — they concede 233.1/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 5.9 there (7 gm)
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 8.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.