• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 53.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 3.2 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.