• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.1
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.2/game vs a 35.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Preliminary Finals: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.