• 0.3 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 8.8/game vs a 12.2 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (22 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.