• 4.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.3 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 4.9 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.