• 2.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.8
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 53.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.3 at this ground — averages 2.4 there (11 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.