• 1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.0 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.9
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 38.8/game vs a 35.7 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 2.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.