• 6.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.0 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 6.0
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 88.8/game vs a 93.4 league average

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.