• 5.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.2 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.6
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 80.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.1 at this ground — averages 5.1 there (49 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.