• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 36.6/game vs a 35.7 league average
• +0.5 at this ground — averages 1.8 there (6 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.