• 5.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 5.0
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 210.3/game vs a 213.6 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.