• 5.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.0 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.2
• −0.7 opponent leak — they concede 80.8/game vs a 93.4 league average
• vs them: averages 6.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 10 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.