• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 7.7/game vs a 9.4 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.