• 7.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.8 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 7.6 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 8.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.