• 2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.0 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 2.0
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 51/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −1.0 at this ground — averages 1 there (4 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.