• 0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 0.7
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 37.8/game vs a 35.7 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.