• 1.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.3
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 11.7/game vs a 12.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.