• 1.9 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 106.2/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 2.5 there (55 gm)
• −0.1 wet forecast — averages 1.8 in the wet (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.