• 0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 4 0.3
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 13.5/game vs a 12.8 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.