• 7.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.3 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.0
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 212.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 7.6 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 9.7 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.