• 0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 12.2/game vs a 12.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −0.4 wet forecast — averages 0.4 in the wet (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.