• 5.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.2 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 9 5.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 152.1/game vs a 155.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.