• 5.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.9 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.2
• −0.6 opponent leak — they concede 82.5/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 5.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.