• 5.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.9 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 53.8/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 4.5 there (21 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.1 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Opening Round: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.