• 0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 29.9/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +0.4 at this ground — averages 0.5 there (19 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.