• 8.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.0 (7 gm) + 0.4 × last 7 8.0
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 148.3/game vs a 155.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 6.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.