• 0.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 43/game vs a 35.3 league average
• +0.3 wet forecast — averages 0.3 in the wet (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.