• 1.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 83/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (10 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.